Premier League
Man City vs Bournemouth
Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Source: Bet365 · Board captured Aug 9, 03:10 UTC · Odds subject to change - check current prices before betting
“City at 1.44 with the total opening at 1.40 over is a board that expects a procession - but the sharpest detail sits in Result/Total, where City-and-over-3.5 against City-and-under-3.5 is a dead 2.75 coin flip. The argument is not whether City win; it is whether they keep scoring after the matter is settled.” — Sports-King
Money line 6.11% hold
| Selection | Price | Fair chance | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 65.4% | ||
| Draw | 18.8% | ||
| Bournemouth | 15.7% |
Goals over/under 4.76% hold
Settles on 90 minutes plus stoppage. Fair chance = the price with Bet365's margin stripped out. The board leans to the over - the market is priced for goals.
| Selection | Price | Fair chance | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 68.2% | ||
| Under 2.5 | 31.8% |
Full ladder: 0.5 (1.02 / 19.00) · 1.5 (1.12 / 6.00) · 3.5 (2.00 / 1.80) · 4.5 (3.40 / 1.33) · 5.5 (6.00 / 1.12) · 6.5 (11.00 / 1.05) · 7.5 (21.00 / 1.015) · 8.5 (41.00 / 1.004)
Both teams to score 8.14% hold
| Selection | Price | Fair chance | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58.9% | ||
| No | 41.1% |
Asian lines 3.90% hold
Quarter lines are two bets in one. Click a row to see exactly how your stake splits and what each result returns.
| Selection | Price | Returns |
|---|---|---|
| Man City -1.0, -1.5 ⓘ | ||
| Bournemouth +1.0, +1.5 ⓘ | ||
| Goal line 3.0, 3.5 - over ⓘ | ||
| Goal line 3.0, 3.5 - under ⓘ |
Full ladder: Man City -3.0, -3.5 (6.60) · Man City -3.0 (6.25) · Man City -2.5, -3.0 (4.40) · Man City -2.5 (3.55) · Man City -2.0, -2.5 (3.30) · Man City -2.0 (3.00) · Man City -1.5, -2.0 (2.375) · Man City -1.5 (2.10) · Man City -1.0 (1.65) · Man City -0.5, -1.0 (1.525) · Man City -0.5 (1.425) · Man City 0.0, -0.5 (1.30) · Man City 0.0 (1.18) · Man City 0.0, +0.5 (1.16) · Man City +0.5 (1.14) · Bournemouth +3.0, +3.5 (1.11) · Bournemouth +3.0 (1.12) · Bournemouth +2.5, +3.0 (1.20) · Bournemouth +2.5 (1.275) · Bournemouth +2.0, +2.5 (1.325) · Bournemouth +2.0 (1.375) · Bournemouth +1.5, +2.0 (1.55) · Bournemouth +1.5 (1.70) · Bournemouth +1.0 (2.20) · Bournemouth +0.5, +1.0 (2.425) · Bournemouth +0.5 (2.75) · Bournemouth 0.0, +0.5 (3.45) · Bournemouth 0.0 (4.65) · Bournemouth 0.0, -0.5 (5.25) · Bournemouth -0.5 (5.75)
Result and total goals 13.58% hold
Six-way combos carry the fattest margin on the board - normal, not a Bet365 quirk: combining two variables compounds the edge, which is why sharper bettors mostly stick to main lines. The fair match odds below are derived from these prices.
| Result | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | Fair match odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 65.4% | ||
| Draw | 18.8% | ||
| Bournemouth | 15.7% |
Scoreline heat map
A Poisson model fitted to nothing but this board (expected goals 2.39 – 1.12, from the money line and the totals). Click a cell to price it against your stake - as the model's fair value, not a Bet365 price.
Most likely: 2–1 (9.6%) · 2–0 (8.5%) · 1–1 (8.0%) · 3–1 (7.6%). Rows: Man City goals; columns: Bournemouth.
Markets this board doesn't show model-derived
Fair values built from the board's own probabilities - the model's numbers, not Bet365 prices; a yardstick if you shop these markets on site.
| Derived market | Fair chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Man City draw no bet | 80.6% | 1.24 |
| Bournemouth draw no bet | 19.4% | 5.17 |
| Double chance: Man City or draw | 84.3% | 1.19 |
| Double chance: Bournemouth or draw | 34.6% | 2.89 |
Coherence check. The goals model puts both teams scoring at 61.3% while the BTTS market prices a fair 58.9% - a 2.4-point gap, mild but worth noting: the totals and the BTTS market are not telling quite the same story.
Advertisement. 18+. Odds shown are a snapshot of the Bet365 board taken August 9, 2026 and are subject to change; check current prices before betting. Fair probabilities, the scoreline model and derived markets are computed from this snapshot alone and are not betting advice. This page contains affiliate links; Sports-King may receive a commission if you sign up through them, at no cost to you. Please gamble responsibly: set a budget before you start and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Support is available at GambleAware.org.
